Tuesday 3 January 2012

Trading is the new poker in 2012

Regular readers of my blogs will know that I am just as much a fan of trading and sports betting as I am of poker. In fact it wasn’t poker at all that was my first venture into gambling but blackjack. But there are numerous connections with all of these fields if you look closely enough. Having too many bets is the key mistake that kills sports bettors and stops them from making profits. This is the same as someone who plays too many hands at poker and bets too big on too many hands in blackjack when the count is negative.
Also too much trading can lead to you simply not being able to overcome the transaction costs even if you make a good trade. The term selective aggression is often used in poker but the term is equally factual to nearly any risk based market. For me then financial trading simply suits my personality more than what poker does. I tried for years to find the best form of poker to fit my personality and that eventually turned out to be NLHE.
However this does not alter the fact that the variance is very high when you risk money in this way irrespective of how good you are. Losing 25%-50% of your bankroll and it being normal has never really sat well with me over the years. If I made a $1000 trade then I may lose no more than 5-10% of that trade if it moves against me and so my maximum loss may be $100. If that same $1000 was in a NLHE cash game then the entire grand could be gone on one hand and it will do that at some stage.

Not only this but my next buy-in and the next and the next can all go the same way. This can never happen in trading and your risk and variance is far lower if you find a very good trading system. So 2012 will see me playing a lot less poker and I am not really sad about that either. But I will still be playing poker at www.pokerstars.co.uk  and so keeping a look out for my trading and poker results being placed here on a regular basis.